IFPA Op-Ed: IFPA11 and 2013-104 PAPA Circuit Cut Line Forecasts from Bob Matthews

Where will the cut lines be?  Can you still get in, you ask.  Let's take a look.
 
IFPA11 first.  I'm projecting the cut to be between #90 and #94.  I'd say #85 and better are "relatively safe," and I'd be really surprised if it goes higher than Joe Said, now at #102.
 
Assumptions:
1.  Non-North Americans who went to IFPA10 or to Pinburgh or PAPA this year will attend.
2.  All of the eligible Americans and Canadians will go (but see #5).
3.  Eligible players from countries that have generally not attended in the past, e.g. Spain, will not change and go this year.4.  A handful of recently-active countries that have not participated in the past, e.g. New Zealand, will send at least one player.
5.  The exceptions to #1-4 will roughly offset each other overall.
6.  No major shifts in rankings balance between North American and non-N.Am. in the remaining 3 weeks.
 
As always, we'll get some new people we don't expect, and some who would normally attend will end up not going for personal reasons of one kind or another.  If those don't offset, the cut line will move up or down.
 
Now for the 2013 – 2014 PAPA Circuit.
 
With three events to go, the 20 PAPA Circuit Finals spots are still mostly up for grabs.  I've crunched the figures, and only the current top five players are locks to get in.  Even Trent, at #6 with 178 points, can still be passed by 15 or more players.  At worst Trent can finish in 30th place.  That's unlikely to happen, though.  Based on who went to which remaining events last year and how well they're likely to do this year, the actual cutoff would be at about 120 points unless there's a lot of new attendees.  If more people near the current cut line choose to go to events they haven't in the past to try to make sure that they get in, the cut line would be a bit higher than 120.  So if the players below Andrei [#14 at 119 points] take another trip or two to try to secure their spots, that will make it harder for everyone else, and may even force some of the players now in the 119-127 range to qualify at one more event to make sure they stay above the cut line.  Of course if lots of people with fewer [or no] circuit points to date do well at the last three events, the cut line would be lower, though I strongly doubt it will end below 100.

 
As always, reality will differ, but this is my best shot given what we know now.  Good luck making the cuts, everybody!

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